Vanke A (000002) quarterly report comments： Carry forward growth growth sales steadily repaired
Vanke A (000002) quarterly report comments: Carry forward growth growth sales steadily repaired
Core Views The company released a quarterly report. In the first quarter of 2019, the company achieved revenue of 48.4 billion US dollars, an increase of 57% year-on-year; realized net profit attributable to its mother of 1.1 billion US dollars, an increase of 25%; the performance was in line with expectations.
We believe that the company’s operating and financing advantages are expected to be highlighted in a more differentiated and more frequent industry cycle. The main layout of the first and second tiers will benefit from the market recovery of these cities, maintaining the EPS of 3 in 2019-2021.
Earnings forecast of 78 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.
High completion drives high carry-over, and cooperation projects expand revenue. In 2019Q1, the company’s completed area was 2.23 million square meters, an increase of 44%, driving the real estate business to realize settlement area of 3.11 million square meters, an increase of 88%, and settlement income of $ 45.6 billion, an increase of 64%.
The quality of settlements improved simultaneously, and gross profit margin increased by 0 in ten years.
8 up to 35.
However, in the reported scale of the benchmark cooperation project, the proportion of losses and gains of minority shareholders in the net profit increased by 15 percentage points to 65%, resulting in a 25% increase in net profit attributable to mothers, which was not as fast as revenue.
As of the first quarter of 2019, the company’s unsettled resources sold were 5,864 trillion, an increase of 55.6 billion yuan compared with the end of 2018, which was a 206% reduction in actual business revenue coverage in 2018, and it could carry rich resources.
The company expects the completion area in 2019 to increase by 12%, which will continue to promote steady growth in performance.
Initially stepped out of the high base effect and gradually achieved positive growth. In January 2018, the company’s sales base was relatively high. In January 2019, the new construction and delivery speed were biased, resulting in the sales area and amount being close to 30%.
With the recovery of delivery speed and market recovery, the company’s sales volume has returned to positive growth in February-March. In the first quarter of 2019, the sales area reached 9.25 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 12%; the sales amount reached 149.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3%.
Of the sales amount, South, Shanghai, North, and Midwest regions accounted for 18%, 41%, 22%, and 18%, respectively.
In 2019Q1, the company started a new construction of 10.19 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 10%. We expect the gradual stock and new acquisition projects to start gradually during the year. The company’s push will continue to recover, and sales will gradually grow steadily.
Steady stock replenishment and stock bond financing advantages continued to highlight the company’s continued stock replenishment trend in the first quarter of 2019, increasing the equity ratio of new projects, increasing 苏州桑拿网 the construction area of new projects by 5.99 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 37%;Growing 2%.
According to the monthly land acquisition data, the first, second, and third and fourth lines of supplementary construction areas account for 10%, 57%, and 33%, respectively. The focus of the layout is still on the first and second tier cities.
As of the first quarter of 2019, the total construction area of the company’s projects under construction was 97.91 million pings, and the equity construction area was 58.52 million pings; the total planned construction area of the project was 55.36 million pings, and the equity construction area was 33.93 million pings;
The advantages of corporate bond financing continue to be prominent. In the first quarter of 2019, 2 billion corporate bonds and 600 million US dollars of foreign debt were issued, and the coupon rate was only 3.
2%; Placing 2 on April 4.
6.3 billion shares (accounting for 2 total shares).
3%), with a total budget of 7.8 billion from the placement.
Consolidate the basic market, maintain the “Buy” rating and gradually advance the “one city, one policy”. In the environment where housing enterprise financing has not yet improved significantly, the company, as a leading housing enterprise, is expected to further highlight its operating and financing advantages.Take advantage of high frequency industry cycles.
The company’s layout is concentrated in first-tier cities, and sales promote the recovery of the first-tier cities.
We maintain EPS for 2019-2021.
78 yuan profit forecast.
Refer to comparable companies for July 2019.
43 times PE estimate, we think the company’s reasonable PE estimate for 2019 is 9-10 times, with a target price of 32.
20 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.
Risk reminders: There is uncertainty about the pace, scope and intensity of industry policy advancement; overlapping real estate fundamentals may drag down sales of the company; there is uncertainty about the shareholding behavior of Tong Shenghua and his concerted parties.